What happens if teams are tied on points in a group?

Tie-breakers in plain English: 1) head-to-head / the result between the tied teams, 2) if needed the mini-table among tied teams, 3) overall goal difference, 4) goals scored, 5) fair-play points, 6) final ranking criteria.

How does goal difference work?

Goals scored minus goals conceded across all group matches. Win 3–0 and lose 0–1 and your goal difference is +2. On this site it is used after head-to-head if teams are still level on points.

How are the probabilities on this site calculated?

We simulate every remaining match thousands of times using each team's overall, attack, midfield and defence profile plus recent form and expected goals, then count how often each team finishes 1st, 2nd, or qualifies as a best third. Probabilities are estimates for entertainment and analysis, not betting advice.

Independent analytics · 48 teams · 104 matches

World Cup Intelligence Hub

Fixtures, groups, live scenarios and bracket picks in one clean tournament flow. Build your path to the final — no sign-up needed.

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Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
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Match Prediction Center

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Pick the winner or the draw, then compare the crowd call with the match forecast. One vote per match per browser — no account needed.

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Past kickoffs are removed automatically; the next scheduled matches will appear here.

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What-If Simulator

Change a score. Rewrite the tournament.

Enter predicted scores or run live simulations, then unlock the best-third race, bracket and final path from your scenario.

Simulation depth

900 Monte Carlo runs · smoother odds

0 group-stage scorelines are in your tournament scenario. Official results, manual edits and full-time live simulations feed the bracket automatically. Checking official results... Loading your saved scenario...

Try a different score and watch the table move. Scenario results are saved locally and drive your bracket.

Group A matches

Mexico–South Africa
South Korea–Czechia
Czechia–South Africa
Mexico–South Korea
South Africa–South Korea
Czechia–Mexico

Live scenario table

#	Team	Qualify
1	Mexico	82%
2	South Korea	76%
3	Czechia	71%
4	South Africa	46%

Green = top two (qualify) · Amber = third place (best-third race)

Your scenario insights

Enter a score or auto-fill the slate to see how qualification chances shift.

Groups

Group qualification probability dashboard

Probabilities are generated using simulated remaining matches and current group standings.

Standings and odds will update as official results arrive.Checking live results...

Group A

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group A table with qualification probabilities
1	Mexico	Likely
2	South Korea	Likely
3	Czechia	Uncertain
4	South Africa	Uncertain

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Mexico84%

11st

40%

22nd

27%

33rd

21%

44th

12%

Best-third path 17%

South Korea75%

11st

28%

22nd

29%

33rd

24%

44th

19%

Best-third path 18%

Czechia69%

11st

22%

22nd

26%

33rd

29%

44th

23%

Best-third path 21%

South Africa45%

11st

10%

22nd

17%

33rd

26%

44th

46%

Best-third path 18%

Group B

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group B table with qualification probabilities
1	Switzerland	Likely
2	Canada	Likely
3	Qatar	At risk
4	Bosnia & Herzegovina	Uncertain

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Switzerland91%

11st

50%

22nd

28%

33rd

15%

44th

Best-third path 13%

Canada81%

11st

28%

22nd

34%

33rd

25%

44th

14%

Best-third path 19%

Qatar33%

11st

22nd

11%

33rd

27%

44th

55%

Best-third path 16%

Bosnia & Herzegovina67%

11st

16%

22nd

27%

33rd

32%

44th

24%

Best-third path 23%

Group C

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group C table with qualification probabilities
1	Brazil	Likely
2	Morocco	Likely
3	Scotland	Uncertain
4	Haiti	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Brazil98%

11st

63%

22nd

28%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 8%

Morocco93%

11st

29%

22nd

47%

33rd

21%

44th

Best-third path 18%

Scotland68%

11st

22nd

21%

33rd

56%

44th

16%

Best-third path 39%

Haiti12%

11st

22nd

33rd

15%

44th

80%

Best-third path 6%

Group D

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group D table with qualification probabilities
1	United States	Likely
2	Australia	Uncertain
3	Türkiye	Likely
4	Paraguay	Uncertain

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

United States80%

11st

35%

22nd

27%

33rd

22%

44th

16%

Best-third path 18%

Australia54%

11st

15%

22nd

20%

33rd

30%

44th

36%

Best-third path 19%

Türkiye77%

11st

33%

22nd

28%

33rd

23%

44th

17%

Best-third path 17%

Paraguay60%

11st

18%

22nd

25%

33rd

26%

44th

32%

Best-third path 17%

Group E

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group E table with qualification probabilities
1	Germany	Likely
2	Ecuador	Likely
3	Ivory Coast	Likely
4	Curaçao	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Germany98%

11st

65%

22nd

24%

33rd

10%

44th

Best-third path 9%

Ecuador86%

11st

21%

22nd

40%

33rd

31%

44th

Best-third path 24%

Ivory Coast79%

11st

13%

22nd

33%

33rd

45%

44th

Best-third path 34%

Curaçao11%

11st

22nd

33rd

15%

44th

81%

Best-third path 6%

Group F

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group F table with qualification probabilities
1	Netherlands	Likely
2	Japan	Likely
3	Tunisia	Uncertain
4	Sweden	Uncertain

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Netherlands93%

11st

58%

22nd

26%

33rd

11%

44th

Best-third path 9%

Japan81%

11st

27%

22nd

36%

33rd

25%

44th

13%

Best-third path 18%

Tunisia38%

11st

22nd

15%

33rd

30%

44th

49%

Best-third path 17%

Sweden56%

11st

11%

22nd

23%

33rd

34%

44th

32%

Best-third path 22%

Group G

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group G table with qualification probabilities
1	Belgium	Likely
2	Iran	Likely
3	Egypt	Likely
4	New Zealand	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Belgium98%

11st

68%

22nd

22%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 8%

Iran76%

11st

15%

22nd

37%

33rd

34%

44th

14%

Best-third path 24%

Egypt73%

11st

15%

22nd

32%

33rd

37%

44th

16%

Best-third path 26%

New Zealand22%

11st

22nd

33rd

21%

44th

68%

Best-third path 11%

Group H

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group H table with qualification probabilities
1	Spain	Likely
2	Uruguay	Likely
3	Saudi Arabia	Uncertain
4	Cape Verde	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Spain99%

11st

73%

22nd

23%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 4%

Uruguay91%

11st

23%

22nd

56%

33rd

17%

44th

Best-third path 12%

Saudi Arabia38%

11st

22nd

13%

33rd

46%

44th

38%

Best-third path 23%

Cape Verde23%

11st

22nd

33rd

33%

44th

57%

Best-third path 12%

Group I

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group I table with qualification probabilities
1	France	Likely
2	Senegal	Likely
3	Norway	Likely
4	Iraq	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

France98%

11st

68%

22nd

22%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 7%

Senegal77%

11st

14%

22nd

33%

33rd

41%

44th

12%

Best-third path 30%

Norway83%

11st

17%

22nd

40%

33rd

35%

44th

Best-third path 26%

Iraq14%

11st

22nd

33rd

16%

44th

78%

Best-third path 8%

Group J

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group J table with qualification probabilities
1	Argentina	Likely
2	Austria	Likely
3	Algeria	Uncertain
4	Jordan	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Argentina98%

11st

73%

22nd

20%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 5%

Austria82%

11st

17%

22nd

45%

33rd

28%

44th

10%

Best-third path 20%

Algeria65%

11st

22nd

28%

33rd

44%

44th

20%

Best-third path 29%

Jordan19%

11st

22nd

33rd

23%

44th

68%

Best-third path 10%

Group K

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group K table with qualification probabilities
1	Portugal	Likely
2	Colombia	Likely
3	Uzbekistan	Uncertain
4	DR Congo	At risk

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

Portugal97%

11st

65%

22nd

26%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 6%

Colombia92%

11st

29%

22nd

51%

33rd

15%

44th

Best-third path 12%

Uzbekistan39%

11st

22nd

15%

33rd

41%

44th

42%

Best-third path 21%

DR Congo28%

11st

22nd

33rd

37%

44th

52%

Best-third path 17%

Group L

P W D L GF GA GD Pts

Group L table with qualification probabilities
1	England	Likely
2	Croatia	Likely
3	Panama	At risk
4	Ghana	Uncertain

Qualification outlook

Top 2 + best thirds

England97%

11st

66%

22nd

25%

33rd

44th

Best-third path 7%

Croatia90%

11st

26%

22nd

48%

33rd

19%

44th

Best-third path 15%

Panama25%

11st

22nd

33rd

30%

44th

59%

Best-third path 14%

Ghana50%

11st

22nd

18%

33rd

44%

44th

33%

Best-third path 27%

The 2026 twist

Best Third-Place Race

Hidden until you create a group-stage scenario. Eight third-placed teams survive; four don't.

Best-third race is hidden for now.

Enter group scores, auto-fill the groups, or finish a live simulation to reveal the third-place table.

Knockouts

Interactive Bracket Builder

The bracket starts empty and builds from the group results you enter or simulate.

Loading saved bracket…

Round of 32 appears only after you create a group-stage scenario. Third-place teams are assigned to legal "3rd place from" pools from your scenario. Tap a team to advance them; your bracket saves automatically in this browser.

This bracket is synced to your group-stage scenario: 0 scorelines applied. Enter scores or run live simulation first.

Bracket is waiting for a complete group stage.

Add manual group scores, use Auto-fill all groups, or run the live simulator. The Round of 32 will build from those results.

Path to Final

Your team's road to July 19

Projected opponents appear after your group-stage scenario creates a knockout field.

Select a countryGroup J0 scores · 0 official

Remaining group matches

vsAlgeriaWed, 17 Jun01:00 UTC
vsAustriaMon, 22 Jun17:00 UTC
vsJordanSun, 28 Jun02:00 UTC

Projected knockout route

Run a group-stage scenario first. This route will appear after manual scores, Auto-fill all groups, or a completed live simulation.

Daily Briefing

Today at the World Cup

Fri, 31 Jul 2026

🧮 Qualification scenario of the day

No matches today — explore the bracket builder while the tournament rests.

Tournament Rules

How the 48-team World Cup works

teams in 12 groups of 4

3 matches each

top-two finishers advance

1st + 2nd of every group

best third-placed teams

ranked across all 12 groups

= 32 teams → Round of 32 → Round of 16 → Quarter-finals → Semi-finals → Final

How does the 48-team World Cup 2026 format work?

48 teams are split into 12 groups of 4. Each team plays 3 group matches. The top two teams in every group advance, and the 8 best third-placed teams across all groups join them — 32 teams total move to the knockout rounds.

How do teams qualify from the group stage?

Finish 1st or 2nd in your group and you are through automatically. Finish 3rd and you enter the best-third-place race: all 12 third-placed teams are ranked together, and the top 8 qualify.

How are the best third-placed teams ranked?

By points first, then goal difference, then goals scored. If teams are still level, fair-play record and official ranking criteria apply.

What happens in the Round of 32?

It is the first knockout round — 32 teams, 16 matches, win or go home. From here every match must produce a winner: extra time, then penalties if needed.

Read the full tournament rules guide →